Carry Trade outlook, VIX lower and risk assets higher, Yellen keeps March alive
Selling EUR and JPY vs EM. As the VIX is approaching the lows again, and with iron ore prices bursting 10% higher over recent days, we continue to see risk currencies performing well, particularly vs the EUR. The drivers of risk support are emanating from the DM world, as China’s monetary conditions are tightening. After Yellen only marginally changed market pricing for hikes this year (52bp to 55bp), the sweet spot of low US real yields, with rising growth expectations, remains, helpinghigh yielding EM currencies to outperform. Our own portfolio includes long MXN, TRY and INR. Even Australia’s data is outperforming, with consumer and business confidence rising. Today’s US retail sales data are expected to be strong on the control group measure. While the USD has become less sensitive to US economic surprises, the data point will still add to the long term picture of an economy that is closing its output gap and so could see higher inflation down the line if companies increase capital expenditure.
China is tightening monetary conditions. New CNY loans grew in January (CNY2.03trn) but were lower than market expectations after the Jan 24 10bp rise in the Medium-term LendingFacility (MLF). The gap between M1 and M2growth has also narrowed for a seventh consecutive month to 3.2% last month from 10.1% in December. The result appeared in property sales data which slowed in January after tightening measures and potentially the Chinese New Year holiday. Data from local housing developers shows that average weekly property sales by area in Tier 1 cities in January fell more than 30%Y and more than 10% week over week. Shanghai and Shenzhen fell even more, according to the China Index Academy.
Cash ready to buy risk. The global impact of China’s tightening of monetary standards may not be seen in FX markets straight away as it is masked by still expanding balance sheets at the ECB and BoJ, rising commodity prices helping growth and now a newly developing point, cash ready to be deployed into assets. The FT is reporting on Swiss banks seeing increasing questions from private wealth on where they can invest cash in a rising inflation environment. Surveys among affluent US investors show they held 28% of their portfolios in cash in 2015,up from 25% the year before. Cash holdings in Europe and Asia are much higher at 40% and 37% respectively. The EUR may weaken in this environment as political risks may increase caution in investment into this region. EURGBP is about to break below its 200DMA at 0.8455.
Yellen did little to change our outlook on the USD, so staying positive vs the low yielding G10 and seeing high yield EM outperforming. The market is now pricing 55bp of hikes this year, including 6bp for March. Interestingly, historical G10 currency sensitivity to US front end yields played out exactly with the JPY and NZD under-performing, while GBP stayed flat. There was perhaps a hawkish tilt to the speech, with our economists noting that Yellen didn’t want to send a signal for a March hike by saying they will assess at upcoming “meetings” rather than “meeting”. Reiterating the FOMC’s stance that they will incorporate fiscal policy when details become more evident was a clear sign that the Fed, like the markets, will be waiting for details on Trump’s tax plans expected in coming weeks. Trump’s meetings and interactions with world leaders over recent days appear to be risk supportive as there has been less emphasis on increasing trade tensions. On the politics front, market focus may now turn to the G10 foreign ministers meetings in Bonn on Thursday and Friday. Market is long SEK. On Monday we outlined some scenarios on the details to watch for in today’s Riksbank Monetary Policy Statement (Krona and repo path). Since we think neither of the “hawkish” surprises are likely and that the market appears to be long SEK into the meeting, we worry that there could be a shock in store that would weaken SEK as markets unwind. We are not however saying that the Riksbank isn’t going to be optimistic, just that markets appear to be getting ahead of themselves, with the setup appearing to be very familiar to those who watched the RBNZ recently too. Swedish data may have improved but the fact that the SEK is now at the Riksbank’s year end forecast, the likelihood that enough members propose a rate hike sooner than mid-18 is low. EURSEK should see support around the 9.41 low and resistance around 9.50.