Commodities

Energy

OPEC oil output: The new year sees the start of the output cuts that were agreed between OPEC and some non OPEC producers. Kuwait has reportedly cut output by 130Mbbls/d to 2.75MMbbls/d to meet their end of the deal. Meanwhile nonOPEC member, Russia saw oil output over December total 11.21MMbbls/d, unchanged from the previous month. • US oil rig count increase: There appears to be no stopping the rig count in the US, which as of the 30th December stood at 525, up 48 since the start of December 2016, and the highest level seen since early January 2016. The stronger prices we are currently seeing, should support a further increase in the rig count moving forward.

Metals

Peru copper output higher: Copper production in Peru over November 2016 totalled 210,718 tonnes, up almost 33% YoY. Stronger production has come about as a result of an expansion in mine capacity in the country. However looking forward, don’t expect to see these impressive growth rates maintained. • Aluminium 2017 outlook: Chinese analyst, SMM are expecting that 2017 will see the global aluminium market return to a surplus of 1m tonnes, from a deficit of around 650,000 tonnes over 2016. The group expects Chinese production to increase by 13% YoY to 36m tonnes on the back of capacity additions.

Agro

• Indian sugar output: The Indian government expect that sugar production over the current 2016/17 season will total 22.5m tonnes, down from 25.1m tonnes last season. The government estimate that carryover stocks from last season stood at 7.71m tonnes, and so believe that there is sufficient supply in the country in order to meet domestic consumption • Ivorian cocoa arrivals: Cocoa arrivals at ports in the Ivory Coast for the week ending 25th December 2016 totalled 73,000 tonnes, compared to 60,000 tonnes for the same period last year. Cumulative arrivals so far this season (starting October) total 723,500 tonnes, compared to 808,000 tonnes for the same period last year.