The European Commission’s confidence survey for the euro area is expected to have softened in August. July’s survey had indicated no signs of weakness following the UK referendum result. Last month, economic confidence index rose to 104.6 from 104.4. However, the index is likely to have reduced in August.
The preliminary consumer sentiment figure was weaker at -8.5. This is still firm overall at 0.45 standard deviations above the average. However, it does indicate towards a drop in the deadline economic confidence index.
“Our forecast for this is 104.1 (from 104.6), which would be consistent with GDP growth of around 0.45% qoq in 3Q16”, said Societe Generale in a research note.
Admittedly, the survey is giving an overall strong scenario of the euro zone’s economy with sentiment levels widespread throughout all sectors. Even construction is nearing its long-term average for the time since 2008. However, any considerable softening in the months ahead would increase worries given that it would be difficult to attribute to the Brexit shock following the initial resilience seen in July, according to Societe Generale.