The bearish flattening seen in the US yield curve and the move in two year USD swap rates to new highs has pushed US-Germany two year spreads towards levels not seen since the late 1990s. It is surprising that EUR/USD is not a lot lower. Severe under-valuation is probably playing a role here, as is the fact that Trump has Germany’s large trade surplus in his sights. For today, we’ll see German Feb CPI, seen rising to 2.1% YoY from 1.9% – providing clues on EZ CPI tomorrow. On balance, Trump’s plans, yield spreads & EZ politics suggests EUR/USD stays pressured and 1.0500/0520 comes under heavy pressure again.