Eurozone: Political clouds, Yields and Rates
While the economic momentum is clearly accelerating, the European political outlook continues to be highly uncertain in 2017. A new terrorist attack in December, this time in Berlin, is likely to play into the hands of populist parties, potentially jeopardizing free movement within the European Union. Likewise, it seems realistic to expect that the rise of populism in Europe will push traditional political parties to play a more nationalistic card to secure victory in the upcoming elections. That implies that 2017 is unlikely to see much political and economic coordination on a European level. Besides, Brussels will be completely absorbed by the difficult Brexit negotiations, which is likely to put all other pan-European initiatives on the backburner. For the time being financial markets seem to be taking it in their stride, but that cannot be taken for granted in 2017.
The outcome of the Italian referendum could have been a bombshell, but there wasn’t much of an impact on financial market sentiment. That said, the uncertainty has not disappeared, as once the electoral reform is approved, elections are likely to be called by June. As for the banking troubles, a solution seems to be in the offing, with parliament approving a €20bn fund to prop up banks. A precautionary recapitalization of Monte di Paschi is now all but sure, although it could take until April to put in place a scheme on the back of EC approval. At the same time retail junior bond holders will be compensated after a bail-in, to avoid populist parties capitalizing on the ill-fated small savers. Meanwhile in Greece, the European problem child, the involvement of the IMF in the third bail-out plan remains quite uncertain, while tensions between the Greek government and its creditors flared up in December. Short-term debt relief measures, which had been decided in early December, were withdrawn after a unilateral decision of the Greek government to hand out a pre-Christmas bonus to retirees. We believe that debt relief will be granted after all, but that it will remain a very difficult process.
The Eurozone economy is starting 2017 on a strong footing. December saw an acceleration in manufacturing activity, with the composite purchasing managers index (PMI) hitting its highest level since April 2011. With new orders picking up rapidly (foreign demand has been boosted by a more competitive euro exchange rate), activity is unlikely to slow in the short run. The message is equally positive when one looks at the household sector. As unemployment continues to fall and wages are now slowly picking up, consumer confidence ended the year on a high note, which augurs well for consumption in the first quarter. The pace of the recovery is speeding up, with the €-coin indicator, a monthly estimate of the underlying GDP growth pace, rising to 0.57% in December. Without the potential political uncertainty, GDP growth could hover close to 2% in 2017.
However, in our forecast we incorporate some political turmoil (given the heavy electoral calendar and the rise of populism). In addition 2017 will see fewer working days than 2016, which might also be a small drag on growth. We therefore now have a 1.5% growth projection for 2017, followed by 1.7% in 2018. In December headline inflation increased from 0.6% to 1.1%, while core inflation increased moderately to 0.9% after months of stagnation at 0.8%. We have already suggested that for a few months businesses have been feeling confident enough to increase output prices. However, it will take some time before this translates into higher consumer prices.
On top of that, we don’t believe that the oil price rally has much further to run, meaning that the initial inflation effect will peter out in the course of 2017. Inflation is clearly trending higher, but this is likely to be a very slow process, as witnessed by the painfully slow bottoming out of core inflation. After the decision to lengthen its QE programme until December 2017, the ECB seems to be done easing. But we still believe that there will be a new lengthening of the programme into 2018 to allow for some tapering. Although by mid-2018 the ECB should have stopped adding to its bond holdings, the upward bond yield pressure from a strengthening economy and slowly rising inflation will, to some extent, be capped by the continuing bond purchases.