In an interview with CNBC yesterday, the vice-chair of the US Federal Reserve said that the Fed’s March projections that forecast two more hikes in 2017, is about right. He stressed that it’s is his forecast as well. In the December 2016 meeting, the Fed projected three rate hikes for 2017 and in March they delivered one while projecting two more for the year. He expects the economy to continue to perform and the inflation to reach the 2 percent goal gradually.
With regard to the fiscal policy promises of the new administration, Mr. Fischer said that last week’s failure of the congress to pass the healthcare bill may have changed his internal calculus but not the overall outlook. He said that the central bank is closely monitoring the fiscal negotiations without prejudging the outcome. He partially blamed lower productivity for hindrance to growth but added that the reasons limiting the productivity growth aren’t fully understood. He expressed his concern with protectionism as he feels that greater global integration since World War II has benefited the US and other nations as well.
Our previous dashboard focusing on the March meeting correctly predicted the outcome including Kashkari dissent, now, our new dashboard will be focusing on the June meeting and it looks like below,
Doves: Neel Kashkari
Hawks: Charles Evans, Patrick Harker, Stanley Fisher and Robert Kaplan.
Unknown: Janet Yellen, William Dudley, and Lael Brainard
Pls. note that Daniel Tarrullo has resigned and the position is yet to be filled. He voted at the March meeting.