Fitch, today, is expected to keep Turkey’s sovereign rating unchanged at BBB-, said Commerzbank in a research report. In the beginning, many anticipated that Turkey’s sovereign ratings would be lowered due to the attempted coup and its aftermath. However, the considerable calming in markets makes it quite unlikely that the ratings would be downgraded.
The USD/TRY pair continues to trade at levels prior to the attempted coup, while CDS trades currently around 240, 50 basis points lower than the highs recorded in the immediate aftermath of the attempted coup. Still, there is likelihood that Turkey’s ratings would be downgraded; however, that would be later in 2016, stated Commerzbank.
The rationale for lowering the sovereign rating would be because of the rapidly decelerating growth and investment profiles and not just because of the result of political machinations in the country. Even if the ratings are lowered, Turkey would trade at levels close to sub-investment grade in CDS space, added Commerzbank.