The betting market is underestimating the possibility of a Le Pen victory in the upcoming French election. The market is pricing 63-67 percent chance of an Emmanuel Macron presidency, compared to 22-25 percent chance for a Marine Le Pen victory. We think that is largely due to the polling. All the polls are predicting a Le Pen win in the first round on April 23rd and a Macron victory in the second round with a huge margin of 62-38 percent. Then, why do we think that possibility of a Le Pen win is mispriced? Here are some points to note,
In 2012 election, Front National Leader Marine Le Pen was not so much of dazzling political figure compared to the 2016 election and many people associated her with her father’s more extreme politics. Yet, she received almost 18 percent of the votes in the first round and came in third place.
More French are disgusted with establishment politics that they were during 2012 election.
The market is underestimating the commitments of Le Pen voters. While Polls show a Macron win, they also show that 95 percent of Le Pen supporters passionately back her compared to just 2/3rd for Mr. Macron. Le Pen voters are more likely to head to the polls to cast their votes than any other parties. Almost 37 percent of the French people are planning to abstain from this year’s election even if it helps Le Pen.
French people who are backing other candidates that the above two are more reluctant to back Macron or Le Pen in the second round.
According to Pew Research Center’s 2016 polls, 62 percent French have unfavorable views towards the European Union.
All polls indicate terrible performance by established parties like the incumbent President Francois Hollande’s Socialist party, which means that the anti-establishment wind is blowing strong and Mr. Macron is the establishment candidate among the duo.
Madame Le Pen is the only prominent female candidate in this year’s French election and that needs to be counted too.
We, expect the betting market to correct the odds sharply after the first round outcome. If le Pen secures 32-35 percent in the first round, it is more likely to be a Le Pen Presidency than not.