Energy • API weekly US crude oil inventory data: the API data shows that US crude oil inventory have dropped 5.8MMbbls over the last week with gasoline inventory also declining 5.7MMbbls. EIA will be publishing official data today after one day delay on account of the Independence Day holiday. EIA’s confirmation of similar withdrawals could support the crude oil prices. • US Strategic Petroleum Reserve sales: US crude oil SPR dropped by 13MMbbls over the past four months to take the total SPR at a 12 year low of 682MMbbls as on 30 June 2017. The US Congress has approved the sales this year to fund the SPR maintenances. Further, the Trump administration plans to sell 270MMbbls of SPR over the next decade (to fund the country’s debt reduction) as rising output lowers the requirement to maintain large reserve.
Metals • Gold silver ratio at the lowest in a year: Gold to silver price ratio increased to 76.4 currently, the levels last seen in April 2016. Amid the uncertainties around the Brexit, Middle East tensions and North Korea missile tests, investors have been favouring safe haven gold over the silver. • Large inflow of copper into LME warehouses: nearly 40kt of copper was rushed into the LME warehouses on 5 July, its sharpest one day inflow since March 2017. Previously, a massive load-in of 30kt was reported on 3 July as well. With these stocks inflow, LME copper inventory has increased to a one month high of 316kt on 5 July 2017 putting some pressure on LME copper spot prices.
Agriculture • Renewable fuel quota in the US: The Trump administration has proposed to keep the conventional renewable fuel quota at the maximum permissible limit of 15bn gallons in 2018 supporting the corn demand and prices. Refiners have been protesting against the high biofuel targets citing ‘blend wall’. • USDA crop progress report: the weekly crop progress report from USDA shows that 68% of US corn crop was in good or excellent condition for the week ended 2 July 2017, higher than 67% a week before but much lower than the 75% a year ago. Meanwhile, only 48% of winter wheat and 37% of spring wheat are in good and excellent condition compared to 62% and 72% a year ago. Below average crop conditions are likely to keep supporting grain prices in the US.