The New Zealand bonds closed modestly higher Thursday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained a neutral policy stance at its monetary policy decision, held earlier today.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, which moves inversely to its price closed flat at 3.25 percent, the yield on 7-year note slipped nearly 1 basis point to 2.82 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year note traded 1/2 basis points higher at 2.12 percent.
The RBNZ left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent today, as was widely expected. Overall, there was little in the accompanying statement to suggest any shift in the RBNZ’s thinking, relative to the February Monetary Policy Statement and the Governor Graeme Wheeler’s speech in early March.
The bottom line is that the RBNZ expects the cash rate to remain low for a considerable period (the forecasts published in February suggested no change until late 2018). The outlook for the New Zealand economy remains positive, but the risks around the global environment are seen to the downside.
“We agree with the RBNZ that the OCR will remain on hold for some time. We have pencilled in two OCR increases in the first half of 2019, but the way we’d describe this more generally is that the first rate hike is too far away to be precise about the timing,” Westpac commented in its latest research report.