Rotation from high yield into emerging markets is in evidence, on HY outflows versus EM inflows. Investment grade space sees a different rotation from government funds into corporate funds, with in particular large chunks of cash going into front end corporate funds of late. At the same time, long end government funds have seen resumed inflows, which should help to cover some duration shorts, leaving aggregate positioning more balanced (bearish).
Seven things learnt from latest flows data
1) There is evidence of rotation out of high yield space into emerging markets, as the latter continue to see steady cash inflows. No evidence of EM re-think as of yet.
2) Emerging markets hard currency funds have been the largest recipient of new money, and local currency funds have seen significantly more inflows than blend funds.
3) Some centres that had seen reduced investor allocations are now seeing a re-build in allocation, with for example Turkey and Mexico now seeing increased allocations
4) High yield inflows in the past couple of months have correlated with the risk-on theme seen in equity markets, and the recent pull back in equities is consistent with the maintenance of that generic correlation.
5) Valuation effects rationalise the recent rotation from high yield into emerging markets, whereas prior W Europe high yield outflows were more reflective of evidence of deceleration of issuance volumes.
6) Rotation from peripheral Eurozone government paper into corporates continues as evidenced from flows. The biggest of the corporate inflows have been into front end funds, which acts as something akin to “a front end haven with a spread”. 7) Government funds continue to see outflows, but there have been some reverse inflows to long end government funds in the past quarter. We read this as evidence of short covering, which should see positioning becoming more balanced ahead.