The CBR meets to set interest rates today. Our team in Moscow look for a ‘dovish hold’ today as do a majority of participants, although there are a few analysts looking for a 25bp or even a 50bp cut. The arguments for a cut are that CPI is falling slightly quicker than expectations and the CBR has started to sound a little more dovish. This year we do see 150bp of rate cuts, taking the policy rate to 8.50%, but see the 50bp per quarter cuts starting in 2Q. Given recent strong flows into EM debt product, we doubt a surprise cut would impact the RUB too severely and 10 year OFZs might have a chance to break under 8%. Equally an on hold outcome is unlikely to alter market expectations much. Expect RUB to stay relatively supported, especially with large tax deadlines due early next week. We tend to favour a USD/RUB move to 56.50/57.00 short term.