Swedish inflation, gauged by the CPIF, stripping energy, was at 1.9% y/y in March. However, inflation is likely to have decelerated last month to 1.6% and is expected to remain at that level for the remainder of the year, according to Nordea Bank.
Including energy, the CPIF inflation is also expected to have slowed to 1.3% in April from March’s figure of 1.5%. However, it is likely to accelerate later in 2016 when the oil price fall from 2015 autumn is dropped out of the comparison figures, noted Nordea Bank.
The year-on-year decline in April’s figure is mainly because of Easter falling early in 2016 in March. During Easter holidays, transport services prices increased in March; however, they are expected to have dropped in April, said Nordea Bank.
“Our forecasts for April are lower than the Riksbank’s, by 0.2% point and 0.1% point, respectively”, added Nordea Bank.
Sweden’s CPI inflation for April is expected to have slowed by 0.1% m/m, according to Nordea Bank. Foreign and domestic travel prices are expected to have declined following a sharp increase in March that pushed up the CPI by about 0.2%. However, this gain is likely to have been reversed in April. Food prices, clothing and footwear prices are expected to have increased slightly. Risks to April’s inflation projection are balanced, said Nordea Bank.