Verbal intervention does require the backing of fundamentals to develop a lasting impact on markets. Unlike previous occasions of talking USD down, President Trump has linked his dollar overvaluation comments to the US interest rate outlook. His suggestion thathe likes low interest rates (also said in May last year)has now put the debate on the appointment of potentially dovish Fed Chair, representing a fundamental shift compared to his election campaign when he criticised the Fed for running interest rates at a too low level. A reappointment of Janet Yellen seems to no longer be categorically ruled out. Alternatively, Trump could opt for a non-conventional appointment such as from the business world, declaring implicitly that the US still had a wide output gap by saying that the economy had a higher growth potential than currently calculated and therefore could afford lower rates for longer. Yesterday’s comments have opened a new playing field and markets will have to digest its implications.

Two countries, one interest: The good news of President Trump comments was that China will not be called a ‘currency manipulator’ when the Treasury releases its currency report this month. CNY has strengthened by 0.3% to 6.8745 this morning, reaching its highest level since March 31. However, RMB has weakened in TWI terms. In respect of USD, China and the US administration have the same interest. A weaker USD has the potential to boost competitiveness for both countries – directly in the case of the US and indirectly in the case of China, where a weaker USD allows China to depreciate RMB againstnon-USD currencies such as EUR, JPY and KRW just to name the heavyweights of China’s currency basket.

Commodities to undermine AUD: Australian labour market data for March were very strong on the headline, with job growth at 60.9k (20k expected) and all in the full-time sector (75k). In addition, China’s March trade balance, seeing exports growing at 16.4%, by far outpacing the 3.4% consensus expectation, while its imports expanded at 20.3%, is in line with our constructive view on the state of the global economy. However, the CRB Rind index has rolled over and iron ore prices have lost another 1.4% overnight, coming in addition to yesterday’s 2.3% decline. China’s commodity import seasonality may play in here, but China trying to curb housing sector investment and shift growth from the old, commodity consuming part of the Chinese economy towards its service sector may play in too. Anyhow, falling prices for China-related commodities have two effects. First, they should weaken AUD, in which we hold short positions, and second, they may allow international bond markets to keep rallying for somewhat longer, keeping USD selling pressure intact for now.

South China Sea row intensified after Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte ordered the Philippines’ military to occupy and fortify islands in the South China Sea amid ongoing territorial disputes between China and other countries in the region. China exerts its claim on most parts of the South China Sea while Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Singapore, and Taiwan dispute such claims. Competing claims include,
• Indonesia, China, and Taiwan over waters NE of the Natuna Islands.
• The Philippines, China, and Taiwan over Scarborough Shoal.
• Vietnam, China, and Taiwan over waters west of the Spratly Islands. Some or all of the islands themselves are also disputed between Vietnam, China, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, and the Philippines.
• The Paracel Islands are disputed between the PRC/ROC and Vietnam.
• Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam over areas in the Gulf of Thailand.
• Singapore and Malaysia along the Strait of Johore and the Strait of Singapore.
Duterte told journalists at a press briefing that following his visit to a military base located in the Philippines western Palawan province, “It looks like everyone is making a grab for the islands there. So we better live on those that are still unoccupied. What’s ours now, we claim it and make a strong point from there….We tried to be friends with everybody but we have to maintain our jurisdiction now, at least the areas under our control…… There are about nine or 10 islands there, we have to fortify……I must build bunkers there or houses and provisions for habitation.”
The defense secretary Delfin Lorenzana has confirmed that President Duterte’s order by saying, “The president wants facilities built such as barracks for the men, water [desalination] and sewage disposal systems, power generators (conventional and renewable), lighthouses, and shelters for fishermen…”
The reactions from other countries including China are yet to emerge in response to this Duterte land grab.

The Japanese government bonds remained mixed Wednesday as investors remain keen to watch the country’s February consumer price inflation as well as industrial production data, scheduled to be released on March 31.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield, which moves inversely to its price, fell 1 basis point to 0.06 percent, while the long-term 30-year bond yields rose nearly 1 basis point to 0.82 percent and the yield on the short-term 3-year note traded flat at -0.18 percent by 06:30 GMT.

Further, trading volumes were low as investors remained reluctant to stake out positions ahead of the looming March 31 domestic fiscal year-end. However, JGB futures did manage to eke out modest gains following the slump in Tokyo stocks as risk sentiment was hurt by Trump’s setback.

Lastly, markets will now be focusing on the February consumer price inflation data, scheduled to be released on March 31 for detailed direction in the debt market.

The Japanese government bonds remained flat in mild trading session Monday, following a slight global rout as concerns mounted over the United States President Donald Trump’s inability to overhaul the US healthcare system.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield, which moves inversely to its price, hovered around 0.05 percent, the long-term 30-year bond yields also remained flat at 0.83 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year note also remained relatively unchanged at -0.25 percent by 06:40 GMT.

Further, Trading volumes were low as investors remained reluctant to stake out positions ahead of the looming March 31 domestic fiscal year-end. However, JGB futures did manage to eke out modest gains following the slump in Tokyo stocks as risk sentiment was hurt by Trump’s setback.

Lastly, markets will now be focusing on the February consumer price inflation data, scheduled to be released on March 31 for detailed direction in the debt market.

The New Zealand bonds closed modestly higher Thursday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) maintained a neutral policy stance at its monetary policy decision, held earlier today.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, which moves inversely to its price closed flat at 3.25 percent, the yield on 7-year note slipped nearly 1 basis point to 2.82 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year note traded 1/2 basis points higher at 2.12 percent.

The RBNZ left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 1.75 percent today, as was widely expected. Overall, there was little in the accompanying statement to suggest any shift in the RBNZ’s thinking, relative to the February Monetary Policy Statement and the Governor Graeme Wheeler’s speech in early March.

The bottom line is that the RBNZ expects the cash rate to remain low for a considerable period (the forecasts published in February suggested no change until late 2018). The outlook for the New Zealand economy remains positive, but the risks around the global environment are seen to the downside.

“We agree with the RBNZ that the OCR will remain on hold for some time. We have pencilled in two OCR increases in the first half of 2019, but the way we’d describe this more generally is that the first rate hike is too far away to be precise about the timing,” Westpac commented in its latest research report.

The consensus expects the ECB to allocate EUR110bn via its target LTRO after allocating EUR62.2bln at its last operation. Given that this is the last TLTRO allocation, demand could be heavy and should the allocation exceed the EUR110 expectation,excess EUR liquidity will be parked at the front end of the EUR curve pushing rates lower, which at the margin is a EUR negative. However, for developing a more pronounced bearish impact on the EUR the liquidity boostneeds to impact the 2-year EUR swap. A decline of the German Schatz yield is not sufficient for driving the EUR lower. ECB’s Nouy (8am) and Lautenschlaeger (3pm) will speak today.

EM and risk outlook stays relatively supported but we see risk aversion alert signs across the board. While investors focus on US politics and especially on today’s vote on the repeal act of Obamacare, other developments should, in our view, not remain unnoticed: a research paper published by two Fed economists and released by the Brookings Institute suggesting US interest rates staying low with the Fed tolerating inflation overshooting targets, the ECB’s targeted LTRO allocations, and the continued fall of iron ore futures. Despite equity markets retracing some of the post-election rally, US monetary conditions have become more accommodative with the falling USD contributing most to this easing. Foreign conditions have turned from providing hefty headwinds as experienced from 2012-16 into tailwinds, helping US reflation gain momentum over time. Accordingly, we prepare for putting on FX trades that benefit from a steeper US yield curve. Short EURSEK and long USDJPY fall into this category. While short EURSEK should work from now, USDJPY’s current downward momentum suggests waiting for 109.50 or for a stabilisation above 112.50 before establishing longs.

US vote: Today markets will wait for the outcome of the vote but FX investors should note that the vote is not scheduled for a specific time. At the moment the vote count may be low so the Republican leaders need the time to gather votes, indicating why no specific time is provided. There is even a risk the vote may be delayed if the leaders feel the vote may not pass.

Watching iron ore. The PBOC-run Financial News newspaper highlighted that the recent rise of RMB money market rates should be put into the context of recent money market operations. China seems to be tightening its monetary conditions to deal with excessive leverage. Importantly, tighter RMB lending conditions have sparked China’s USD denominated loan demand, pushing its USD denominated liabilities up again. Should this loan-related USD inflow into China end up into a higher FX reserves (see chart below) – thus providing an additional signal that offshore USD liquidity conditions are on the rise – EM markets should see further inflows. Meanwhile, China has seen the ratio of mortgage loans to total credit of commercial banks reaching uncomfortably high readings. It has been China’s property and infrastructure investment driving commodity – including iron ore – demand. Authorities are now directing growth away from the property market which suggests that commodity prices may ease. Falling iron ore prices will not bode well for the AUD. Within this context we recommend using the AUD as a funding tool for high yield EM longs and for a long GBP position. GBPAUD has moved away from levels suggested by relative forward curves.

The Australian bonds traded in a tight range Tuesday as investors refrained from any major activity amid a light trading session. Also, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) March monetary policy meeting minutes, painted a mixed picture of the economy, adding sluggishness to market sentiments.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, hovered around 2.82 percent, the yield on 15-year note also traded flat at 3.21 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year remained steady at 1.81 percent by 04:20 GMT.

The minutes of the RBA March board meeting continued to paint the picture of an RBA unwilling to move official interest rates anytime soon. The Board highlighted a range of positives, but concerns were also raised. The central bank was notably more upbeat about the global outlook and the flow on effect to higher commodity prices.

Concerns surrounding the outlook for the labor market were apparent, with the RBA noting that “conditions had remained mixed” and that “momentum in the labor market remained difficult to assess”. A further mixed picture on the labor market leaves the RBA between a rock and a hard place.

Lastly, markets will now be focussing on the RBA Deputy Governor Guy Debelle’s speech, scheduled to be held on March 22 for further direction in the debt market.

UK’s manufacturing output rose by 1.2 percent in the last quarter of 2016. Boost to competitiveness from sterling’s depreciation last year was probably a key driver of this upturn. The underlying trend is clearly upward, as is indicated by the 1.9 percent rise in Q4 production when compared to the same quarter a year ago, says Lloyds Bank.

Official data for the month of January showed a small fall in output in January and the February purchasing managers’ survey showed a modest decline in the level of the headline index from the previous month. Analysts at Lloyds Bank opine that the declines are probably just temporary retreats after outsized gains in previous months.

“With orders as measured by both the PMI and CBI surveys strong enough to point to further output gains over the next few months, the sector still seems on course for further expansion,” said Lloyds Bank in a report.

Fall in manufacturing investment, however, raises concerns about the sustenance of upside in the longer term. UK manufacturing investment probably fell by more than 4 percent last year, its weakest performance since 2009. The start of the Brexit negotiations will likely create more uncertainty which could hamper investments going forward. Continued sluggish investment growth may add to concerns about the UK’s modest productivity performance, adds Lloyds Bank.

Growth in Japan is holding up nicely and economic activity has gained momentum since 4Q16 with the pickup in the global capex and manufacturing cycle. Inflation has started to push back above the waterline. But as Governor Kuroda emphasized at a press conference last week, inflation expectations remain stuck, something highlighted by this year’s spring wage negotiation projected to produce only modest wage increases. With price pressures nailed to the floor, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) doesn’t seem to be in a hurry to raise rates.

“With our USD rates forecasts pushed upward, we now expect that the BoJ will taper its asset purchases at a somewhat slower pace than previously and that QE will end in H2 2019, instead of mid-2019. JGB rates unchanged,” said DNB markets in a research note to clients.

There is an ongoing debate whether the BoJ will have to raise its 10-year bond yield cap because of the lack of JGB liquidity. There seems to be still a split of views inside the BoJ on whether the Bank should or should not raise the 10-year yield target when the real interest rates decline further. The longer the BoJ keeps the 10-year yield target unchanged, the more rapidly it will have to adjust the target later.

Analysts expect the BoJ to maintain the current 10-year yield target through year-end, but if it sees greater yen weakness, it would adjust the target in 2H17. BoJ will have to strengthen communication strategy with forward guidance on its yield curve control (YCC) policy to manage market expectations. It would probably provide the conditions under which the BoJ would raise the 10-year yield target.

“While we expect the BoJ to introduce forward guidance on its yield curve control (YCC) policy relatively soon, we think it would do so in July at the earliest, when the BoJ reviews its economic outlook and discusses its monetary policy stance in the Outlook Report. If it may take time to build a consensus among the board members on this issue, delaying its introduction until October,” said J.P. Morgan in a report.

USD/JPY trades below 100-day moving average. The pair is tracking DXY lower, amid holiday-thinned markets (Japan closed for Vernal Equinox Day) and lack of fresh fundamental drivers. Technical studies are bearish, RSI and stochs are biased lower and MACD has shown a bearish crossover on signal line. 112 levels in sight, violation there could see test of 111.60 and then 111 levels.

The New Zealand bonds remained weak at the time of closing Friday, tracking softness in the U.S. counterparts amid a quiet trading session that witnessed data of little economic significance. Also, investors will remain focused on the GlobalDairyTrade (GDT) price auction, scheduled to be held on March 21.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, which moves inversely to its price rose 1 basis point to 3.29 percent at the time of closing, the yield on 7-year note jumped nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 2.86 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year note also dived 1 basis point higher at 2.13 percent.

New Zealand’s economy expanded 0.4 percent q/q over the final three months of 2016. That was below consensus expectations and the softest quarterly growth experienced since Q2 2015. Q3 growth was also revised lower to 0.8 percent q/q (from 1.1 percent previously reported). As such, annual growth eased to 2.7 percent y/y.

New Zealand’s Dairy prices fell 6.3 percent in the latest GDT price auction, following a 3.2 percent decline a fortnight ago. Within this, powder prices performed poorly, with whole milk powder prices falling 12.4 percent to USD2,794/MT, and skim milk powder prices falling 15.5 percent. Meanwhile, AMF continues to be well-supported at high levels, edging down only 0.8 percent.

New Zealand’s current account deficit narrowed as expected in Q4, leading to the smallest annual deficit (2.7 percent of the gross domestic product) since September 2014. Looking forward, there seem to be risks skewed towards modestly larger deficits on the back of higher global interest rates and a slow closure of the domestic credit-deposit growth gap, but this is not a cause for alarm.

The unadjusted current account deficit narrowed to USD2.3 billion in Q4 (from USD5.0 billion), broadly in line with consensus expectations. In annual terms, the deficit narrowed to 2.7 percent of GDP, which is the smallest deficit since September 2014 and well below its historical average of 3.7 percent.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the current account deficit also narrowed (by slightly more than we expected), printing at USD1.6 billion, down USD0.4 billion from Q3, driven by a further increase in the services surplus to an all-time high of USD1.2bn on increased international tourist spending, offset by a mildly larger goods deficit. The income deficit also narrowed by around USD0.4 billion to USD2.0 billion as income from New Zealand’s offshore investments increased in the quarter.

Further, net external debt of deposit-taking institutions rose a touch in the quarter to just over USD105 billion. However, that was offset by reduced external borrowing from the central government and ‘other’ sectors, meaning that the county’s total net external debt position actually fell to USD143.5 billion or 55.0 percent of GDP, the lowest since 2003.

The New Zealand bonds nose-dived Thursday, tracking weakness in the U.S. counterpart, with the 10-year yields sinking to over 2-week low after investors crowded demand in safe-haven assets, following lower-than-expected fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, which moves inversely to its price plunged 10 basis points to 3.28 percent, while the yield on 7-year note also slumped 10 basis points to 2.85 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year note dived 6-1/2 basis points to 2.12 percent by 05:50GMT.

New Zealand’s economy expanded 0.4 percent q/q over the final three months of 2016. That was below consensus expectations and the softest quarterly growth experienced since Q2 2015. Q3 growth was also revised lower to 0.8 percent q/q (from 1.1 percent previously reported). As such, annual growth eased to 2.7 percent y/y.

On the back of stronger terms of trade, nominal GDP rose 2.1 percent q/q (7.5 percent y/y), while real gross national disposable income (RGNDI) surged 2.8 percent q/q, the strongest quarterly lift since Q1 2010. In per capita terms, RGNDI rose 2.3 percent q/q. The benefits of this real income boost should not be discounted.

A rate hike from the US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) today is almost a certainty. The policymakers would conclude their two days of meeting today and announce the decision at 18:00 GMT, followed by a press conference by the Fed Chair Janet Yellen. As of data available for March 14th, the participants in the financial markets are pricing with 91 percent probability that there will be a 25 basis points rate hike. The market is pricing the next hike to be in June and the third hike to be in December.

We have prepared an FOMC dashboard that segregates members in three distinct groups, Hawks, Doves, and unknowns based on their remarks and commentaries made in public forums, focusing on the March interest rate decision. That dashboard is also suggesting that there will be a hike today. We have found that except for Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, all the other members are hawkish heading to the rate decision. We also couldn’t confirm the views of Daniel Tarullo, who has recently resigned and this is his last rate decision meeting.

The US dollar index is currently trading at 101.38, down 0.25 percent for the day. The dollar has been struggling to head to higher highs despite a full market pricing (almost) of a hike in March and three this year. So, the dollar index might see selloffs after the interest rate decision if the inflation and interest rate outlooks are not substantially upgraded beyond what was shared in the December projections. In addition to that, the major focus is on the Dutch election this week, for which the results would start appearing after the FOMC meeting.

The Australian bonds traded modestly higher Wednesday as investors poured into safe-haven assets ahead of the February employment report, scheduled to be released on March 16. Also, the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) monetary policy meeting, scheduled for later in the day will provide further guidance to financial markets.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, fell 1/2 basis point to 2.93 percent, the yield on 15-year note dived nearly 1 basis point to 3.32 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year also traded 1 basis point lower at 1.89 percent by 03:20 GMT.

Australia’s February business conditions retraced some of the previous month’s gains, but remain at levels consistent with solid growth. Confidence also eased back slightly. Business confidence also edged down in February, alongside a further deterioration in the Federal Government’s standing in public opinion polling.

“We expect the February jobs report, out later this week, to show a solid rise in employment, but over the longer term a sharper downtrend in the unemployment rate is likely necessary for a sustained boost to households’ perceptions of their finances,” ANZ Research commented in its latest research report.

The Japanese government bonds traded narrowly mixed Tuesday as investors await to watch the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2-day monetary policy meeting, scheduled to be held on March 15-16, announcing its decision on Thursday.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield, which moves inversely to its price, hovered around 0.09 percent, the long-term 30-year bond yields also traded flat at 0.87 percent and the yield on the short-term 2-year note remained steady at -0.25 percent by 06:00 GMT.

The BoJ is expected to keep monetary policy steady on Thursday and stress that inflation is nowhere near levels that justify talk of withdrawing massive stimulus, as weak consumer spending casts a cloud over an otherwise healthy pick-up in the economy.

Further, at the two-day rate review that ends on Thursday, the central bank is expected to maintain its short-term interest rate target at minus 0.1 percent and a pledge to guide the 10-year government bond yield around zero percent via aggressive asset purchases. Analysts also expect the BoJ to keep intact a loose pledge to maintain the pace of its annual increase in Japanese government bond (JGBs), which is JPY80 trillion (USD696.62 billion).

Latest data released yesterday show that the upward march of inflation that continued early last year is still gathering pace in Europe. Spain released its consumer price inflation report yesterday and it showed that consumer prices in February rose at the fastest pace since 2012. In February, Prices were up by 3 percent from a year ago and on a monthly basis it is up by 0.3 percent from January. Two major contributors were transport prices that rose by 8.2 percent and housing prices which rose by 5.9 percent. Furniture and household good is the only sector that took a dip of 0.4 percent compared to the year-ago level. Spanish inflation came in line with that of the entire Eurozone, where the price rose by 2 percent, highest level in four years and above the target of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Data from Poland points that the return of inflation is not just a Eurozone development it’s pan-European and global as well. Inflation in Poland rose by 2.2 percent in February, which is again the fastest pace in four years.

However, one should pay an ear to the European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi’s comments that the central bank is not worried about inflation as it is being largely driven by an increase in the prices of commodities. Lately, the prices of commodities, especially energy and industrials have taken a hit and it is likely to get reflected in the numbers going ahead. We at FxWirePro expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue its easing as declared and throughout the year.

The euro is currently trading at 1.063 against the dollar.

With January meeting gone, there are eight more Fed meetings scheduled ahead for this year and according to the December projection, the Fed is expected to hike rates by 25 basis points in three of them. The financial market has recently started pricing three rate hikes for the year. Let’s look at the market pricing of the hikes, (note, all calculations are based on data as of 10th March)

March 15th meeting: Market is attaching 11 percent probability that rates will remain at 0.5-0.75 percent, and 89 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent
May 3rd meeting: Market is attaching 10.5 percent probability that rates will remain at 0.5-0.75 percent, 82 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, and 7.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent.
June 14th Meeting: Market is attaching 5 percent probability that rates will remain at 0.50-0.75 percent, 42 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 49 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, and 4 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent.
July 26th meeting: Market is attaching 4 percent probability that rates will remain at 0.50-0.75 percent, 35 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 47 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 13 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, and 1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent.
September 20th meeting: Market is attaching 2 percent probability that rates will remain at 0.50-0.75 percent, 23 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 43 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 26 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 5.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 0.5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.
November 1st meeting: Market is attaching 2 percent probability that rates will remain at 0.50-0.75 percent, 21 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 40 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 28 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 8 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, and 1 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent.
December 13th meeting: Market is attaching 1percent probability that rates will remain at 0.50-0.75 percent, 9 percent probability that rates will be at 0.75-1.00 percent, 28 percent probability that rates will be at 1.00-1.25 percent, 36 percent probability that rates will be at 1.25-1.50 percent, 20 percent probability that rates will be at 1.50-1.75 percent, 5 percent probability that rates will be at 1.75-2.00 percent, and 1 percent probability that rates will be at 2.00-2.25 percent.
The probability is suggesting,

1st hike of the year in March and the second hike in June. The third one is being priced in December.

The Australian bonds rebounded on the first trading day of the week as investors remain glued to watch the February employment report, scheduled to be released on March 15. Further, the 10-year bond yields have formed a ‘bullish gravestone doji’ pattern after two consecutive sessions of selling activity in the last week.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, plunged 3-1/2 basis points to 2.95 percent, the yield on 15-year note also dived 3-1/2 basis points to 3.34 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year traded 1-1/2 basis points lower at 1.91 percent by 04:40 GMT.

Australia’s unemployment rate unexpectedly fell in January, despite a plunge in full-time jobs, underscoring the mixed picture of the country’s labor market. The unemployment rate held below 6 percent partly due to discouraged job-seekers giving up the hunt, underscoring spare capacity in the labor market.

The New Zealand government bonds jumped Monday at the time of closing, following expectations of a drop in the country’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), scheduled to be released on March 15.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, which moves inversely to its price plunged 3-1/2 basis points to 3.39 percent at the time of closing, the yield on 7-year note also slipped nearly 3-1/2 basis points to 2.94 percent while the yield on short-term 5-year note traded 2-1/2 basis points lower at 2.64 percent.

The rate of quarterly GDP growth is expected to soften a touch in Q4, partly related to temporary weather influences. Tight supply (rather than meaningfully softer demand) conditions are dominating. The current account deficit should remain at a historically comfortable level, ANZ research reported.

“We estimate that GDP rose by a modest 0.5 percent in the December quarter, following 1.1 percent growth in September. Construction is again expected to be one of the strongest sectors, with primary production and manufacturing likely to be the most significant drags on growth,” Westpac commented in its recent research publication.

The German 10-year government bund yields climbed to 5-week high on the last trading day of the week ahead of the Eurogroup Summit scheduled to be held later in the day. Also, a hawkish stance by the European Central Bank (ECB) in its monetary policy meeting held yesterday, drove prices lower.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond, which moves inversely to its price, jumped 2-1/2 basis points to 0.44 percent, the long-term 30-year bond yields surged 3 basis points to 1.26 percent and the yield on short-term 2-year bond traded 2 basis points higher at -0.84 percent by 08:10 GMT.

The ECB kept all policy measures unchanged at today’s meeting, which was in line with market expectations. However, Governor Mario Draghi had a hawkish tone during the Q&A session as he said the Governing Council discussed whether to remove the ‘lower levels’ from the forward guidance on policy rates.

Further, on the very short-end, German yield curve, Draghi said the ECB was monitoring distortions. The market reacted by sending German government bond yields higher by around 5bp beyond the 10Y point.

Lastly, investors will be closely eyeing the trade balance, due late today for detailed direction in the debt market.

China’s new yuan loans fell sharply in February from near-record levels in the previous month but were still higher than expected. Chinese banks extended 1.17 trillion yuan (about 169.2 billion U.S. dollars) of new yuan loans in February, down from 2.03 trillion yuan in the previous month, central bank data showed Thursday.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has adopted a modest tightening bias in a bid to cool explosive growth in debt, though it is treading cautiously to avoid hurting economic growth. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new February yuan loans of 0.920 trillion yuan.

China’s new yuan loans remained relatively strong in February, led by long-term household loans and corporate lending. Household and corporate long-term loans, in combination, accounted for CNY982.2bn or 84% of overall monthly new yuan loans.

The M2, a broad measure of the money supply that covers cash in circulation and all deposits, grew 11.1 percent from a year earlier to about 158.29 trillion yuan. The M1, a narrow measure of the money supply which covers cash in circulation plus demand deposits, rose 21.4 percent year on year to 47.65 trillion yuan.

“We see little chance for monetary policy to return to easing. In addition, the PBoC should continue to re-shape the interest rate curve in the money market, with higher 7-day reverse repo rates and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rates,” said ANZ in a report.

Speaking with the BBC, Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon said that she has not decided whether to push for another independence referendum but insisted that she is not bluffing with her demands to the UK government for special concessions for Scotland. Previously she had said that she has cast iron mandate as her party was overwhelming elected in the regional election and because in the last referendum it was publicized that only by remaining in the UK, Scotland would have access to the EU single market. Her government brought a litigation saying that the parliament in Scotland should have voting power over Article 50, which was denied by the highest court. She has repeatedly accused Prime Minister Theresa May’s government of overlooking her demands.

While she kept her Scoxit referendum date thinly veiled she seemed to be agreeing on the time suggested by her predecessor Alex Salmond, who resigned after losing the first referendum. The time suggested by him is autumn 2018. According to Ms. Sturgeon, the time suggested makes sense as the major outline of the Brexit deal would be clear by then.

Commodity markets are taking centrestageas oil had its largest one day fall (- 4.5%) in 13 months. Oil net long positions from the CFTC have been overextended since the start of the year, but it was the combination of technicals and ever more inventory builds in the US that gave investors the signal to take profit. Within G10, CAD has been, and should continue to be, more sensitive than NOK because leveraged market positioning is still very long CAD. CADJPY is sitting on its 100DMA, with a move below 84.20 marking a technical break. AUDUSD is about to break below its 100DMA at 0.75,helped by iron ore prices falling 9% from their peak, keeping us bearish on this pair. AUDUSD has bounced off the top end of a trend channel, bringing the bottom end of the channel at 0.7080 into focus. Even with expectations of a neutral Norges Bank next week (or essentially less dovish than last time), we stick with our tactical long USDNOK trade of the week.

Oil inventory data from the EIA showed a rise of 8.2mb to 528.4m, which is the highest in the data series going back to 1982. US producers appear to be ramping up production quickly, helped by stronger margins from high oil prices and relatively low funding costs. According to Reuters, producers in the red-hot Permian Basin in Texas are expected to increase production soon. An observation from our oil desk highlights the extent of the extreme technicals. They say that there hasn’t been a time in the last 30 years when the weekly front end Brent contract has been in such a tight range, trading sideways for three months. The longer that went on for, the more positioning stresses built up, explaining the sharp drop yesterday. The next formal OPEC meeting isn’tuntil May 25.

The DXY is still under performingtherisein positive US data surprises: Yesterday’s bumper ADP jobs estimate of growth of 298k in February beat market consensus of 187k. Our US economist has revised up his NFP expectation from 200k to 250k. Jobless claims hitting a series of record lows all year, combined with one of the warmest Februarys on record, has helped outdoor industries like construction do well. The market now prices a 100% probability of a hike in rates by the Fed next week, and so any USD strength needs to be driven by expectations of a faster pace of rate hikes in 2018.

JPY: Investors sensitive to US yields: Weekly security flow data for last week showed Japanese net selling of 1.13trn of foreign bonds. There will likely be some volatile data in the run-up to fiscal year-end (March 31) but we think there should be more focus put onto country reallocations for Japanese investors, with a potential to shift into higher-yielding assets. Yesterday the Nikkei reported that the Japanese Financial Services Agency will start to audit regional banks who have large exposures in foreign debt. In particular, concerns have been raised about losses made on US Treasuries. The benefits of USD rising versus JPY as US Treasuries sell off are not there if the bank is holding the foreign asset with an FX hedge. This story needs to be watched to see if changing governance may push Japanese banking sector investments locally instead of abroad. Thinking about that flow, it may actually still be bearish for JPY if it puts downward pressure on JGB yields or increases local lending. If the BoJ’s central bank liquidity turns into ‘high-powered liquidity’ as the banks lend more to businesses, this would help local inflation and thus weaken JPY. Selling EURGBP over the ECB: Today’s market focus will be on the ECB press conference and specifically how much more confident Draghi is about the recovery in inflation. Should the market, against our economist’s expectations, perceive today to be a hawkish outcome, then we think that EUR will trade in two stages. Initially EUR should rally as bond yields rise (with our limit being at 1.08). However, the bond yield rise may be disproportionate across the region, causing spreads to widen. The spread widening is not a good sign for the monetary union as it will highlight further the divergence in economic data performance. EUR should fall as markets realise this and EUR becomes inversely correlated with peripheral spreads. On the UK side, Nicola Sturgeon has suggested to the BBC that a second independence referendum in autumn 2018 would make sense but still stresses thatno final decision has been made. This story adds to our bullish GBP view since it may bring Theresa May’s approach to the Brexit negotiations away from the ‘hard Brexit’ and towards the middle to accommodate Scottish views. We think that Brexit risks are largely in the price and still like selling EURGBP, with a stop at 0.88.

As a harbinger of what may be in store in Friday’s US jobs report, surprisingly strong ADP data pushed bond yields higher yesterday. The 10yr UST yield topped 2.56% as markets assess the Fed’s potential hiking pace for the year. The discounted odds for a hike at the March meeting have risen to 90%. By the end of the year the effective fed funds rate is now seen some 65bp above the current average, which can be interpreted as a c. 60% probability for a third hike this year being discounted.
10yr Bund yields were dragged higher alongside to 0.37% with Bund ASWs largely reversing Tuesday’s widening. EGB spreads versus Bunds saw only moderate widening pressure with 10yr OAT/Bund widening just 1bp yesterday, while only slightly underperforming OLOs. With a new Harris poll showing Macron overtaking Le Pen in the first round, OATS may receive some tailwind today.
ECB meeting. Today’s focus will be squarely on the ECB, but we do not expect any changes to policy or communication against the backdrop of increased political risks. Rather we believe that the ECB will want to reinsure markets with more dovish tones. Nonetheless, the money market curve re-steepened yesterday, dragged higher with the overall rates market. The June 2018 ECB dated EONIA forward is up at -0.24bp again, some 11bp above current average EONIA fixing. We doubt whether the ECB will alter its forward guidance already at today’s meeting, although a risk remains that larger revisions of the staff forecasts might outweigh an unchanged guidance. Our economists believe smaller upticks to the headline inflation projection on the basis of adjusted underlying assumptions regarding oil prices and/or the exchange rate might be possible. However the core inflation profile should be more important, and here the ECB is more likely to reiterate that there is little evidence of self-sustainable inflation yet. Accordingly, we do not expect any discussion regarding a tapering to have occurred at this point.
EGB supply. Only Ireland will be active today reopening the IRISHs 5/26 and 2/45 for a combined €1-1.25bn. Italy announced a new 7yr BTP 5/24 (€3-3.5bn) for auction on 13 March. Alongside the Tesoro will also reopen the BTP 10/19 (€2.25-2.75bn) as well as the BTPs 9/33 and 9/46 (combined €2-2.75bn).

Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit bill suffered a second defeat at the House of Lords after the lawmakers rejected last week an amendment with regard to the rights of the people of the European Union who are staying in the United Kingdom. Yesterday, by an overwhelming majority, 366 to 268, the lawmakers voted in favor of an amendment which gives the parliamentarians in the United Kingdom, the final say over the Brexit deal, which is expected to be reached over next two years after the Article 50 is triggered before March 31st this year.

The amendment was introduced by the Labor Party of the UK but the government had argued that it would be a threat to national interest. However, that didn’t prevent the amendment from securing a bipartisan victory. While Ms. May had verbally promised a vote to the parliament in her Brexit speech, the amendment binds her to make good on that promise.

The Brexit bill will now return to the House of Commons with the amendment forcing May to have a vote on her Brexit deal and another guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens. The government is working hard to pass the bill and trigger the Article 50 divorce clause by March 31st or the exit would become more difficult after that date. From April 1st, a country looking to exit the EU would need the support of 14 members of the 27 members group.

The Japanese government bonds skid Thursday on the back of falling U.S. Treasuries, after comments by the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen raised chances of an interest rate hike at the monetary policy meeting scheduled to be held on March 14-15. Also, weak investor demand at the 5-year auction held Wednesday weighed on bond prices, pushing the yields to multi-month highs.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield, which moves inversely to its price, rose 1-1/2 basis points to 0.09 percent, while the long-term 30-year bond yields hovered around 0.86 percent while the yield on the short-term 2-year note jumped 2-1/2 basis points to -0.26 percent by 06:30 GMT.

Recent comments from the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, specifying that a March rate hike is definitely on the cards, if the economy holds momentum, added to the rise in market expectations and investors have quite already priced in for a rate hike this month. This further, led to a surge in bond yields, pushing prices to record lows.

The auction attracted weak investor demand as the five-year bonds remained expensive. Further, the bid-to-cover ratio, a gauge of demand, at Thursday’s JPY2.4 trillion (USD20.97 billion) 5-year auction slipped to 2.86 from 4.26 at the previous sale in February.

The Japanese government bonds traded flat Wednesday as investors digested the upswing in the country’s fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

The benchmark 10-year bond yield, which moves inversely to its price, hovered around 0.07 percent, while the long-term 30-year bond yields jumped 3 basis points to 0.87 percent while the yield on the short-term 2-year note traded flat at -0.28 percent by 06:40 GMT.

Japan’s GDP gained 0.3 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2016, the Cabinet Office said in Wednesday’s final revision, missing forecasts 0.4 percent and was up from last month’s preliminary reading of 0.2 percent. GDP gained 0.3 percent in Q3.

On a yearly basis, GDP was revised up to 1.2 percent from 1.0 percent, although that also missed forecasts for 1.5 percent. GDP gained 1.4 percent in the three months prior. Nominal GDP was bumped up to 0.4 percent on quarter from 0.3 percent in the third quarter. That missed forecasts for 0.5 percent but was up from 0.2 percent in the three months prior.

The Australian bonds continued to slump Wednesday as investors cashed in profits after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remained on hold at the latest monetary policy meeting held yesterday, hinting at no further policy easing in the near-term.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, jumped nearly 5 basis points to 2.87 percent, the yield on 15-year note also climbed nearly 5 basis points to 3.28 percent while the yield on short-term 1-year traded 1 basis point lower at 1.61 percent by 05:00 GMT.

The RBA has left the official cash rate on hold for a sixth straight meeting on signs the economy is strengthening and business investment has picked up. The decision to maintain rates at current levels comes as the labor market, inflation and wages growth continue to stutter at the same time that growth has recovered, housing prices continue to surge and business and consumer confidence hover around multi-year highs.

Further, the central bank expects the economy to grow around 3 percent annually over the next several years on steady consumption growth and expanding resource exports.

The Australian bonds plunged after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remained on hold at today’s monetary policy meeting, hinting at no further policy easing in the near-term.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, rose 1 basis point to 2.82 percent, the yield on 15-year note also nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 3.23 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year traded nearly 1/2 basis point lower at 1.84 percent by 04:20 GMT.

The RBA has left the official cash rate on hold for a sixth straight meeting on signs the economy is strengthening and business investment has picked up. The decision to maintain rates at current levels comes as the labour market, inflation and wages growth continue to stutter at the same time that growth has recovered, housing prices continue to surge and business and consumer confidence hover around multi-year highs.

Further, the central bank expects the economy to grow around 3 percent annually over the next several years on steady consumption growth and expanding resource exports.

Retail sales across the eurozone fell for a third straight month in January missing market expectations of a rise. Data released by Eurostat on Friday showed retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the euro fell by 0.1 percent m/m in January. Data disappointed market expectations of a 0.4 percent increase on the month.

Year-on-year, the volume of retail sales grew 1.2 percent in January, also below the 1.6 percent rise forecasted. Data suggested lower consumer appetite for spending possibly caused by higher consumer prices.

A 0.2 percent drop in purchases of non-food products was seen as the main drag on monthly retail sales reading. Sales of food, drinks and tobacco were also down 0.1 percent. Car fuel sale was an exception which rose by 0.8 percent in the month.

The unexpected drop in retail sales was in contrast to broader signs that the eurozone economy has strengthened over recent months. A survey of purchasing managers at manufacturers and service providers also released Friday pointed to a pickup in private sector activity, with the composite Purchasing Managers Index hit its highest level in 70 months.

The Australian bonds gained modestly at the start of the trading week Monday ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision, scheduled to be held on March 7. However, investors have largely shrugged off the upbeat reading of the country’s retail sales during the month of January.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves inversely to its price, slipped nearly 1 basis point to 2.81 percent, the yield on 15-year note also fell nearly 1-1/2 basis points to 3.23 percent while the yield on short-term 2-year traded nearly 1/2 basis point lower at 1.84 percent by 03:50 GMT.

Australia’s nominal retail sales rose by 0.4 percent m/m in January, in line with market expectations and a recovery from soft results in November and December. In annual terms, retail sales were up 3.1 percent y/y in January.

However, in trend terms, retail sales slowed to 0.2 percent m/m in January (from 0.3 percent m/m in both November and December) but remained steady at 3.2 percent y/y.

“There is little sign of this dynamic changing anytime soon, in our view. Thus, while we think the RBA is most likely on hold we see the prospects of a rate cut in the next 12 months as much greater than those of a rate hike,” ANZ Research commented in its latest research report.

The Japanese government bonds traded narrowly mixed Monday as investors wait to watch the super-long 30-year auction, scheduled to be held on Tuesday. Also, the fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP), due to be released on March 7 at 23:50GMT, is closely eyed by market participants as well.

The benchmark 10-year bond yield, which moves inversely to its price, rose 1/2 basis point to 0.08 percent, while the long-term 30-year bond yields fell nearly 1 basis point to 0.84 percent while the yield on the short-term 2-year note traded 1/2 basis point lower at -0.28 percent by 05:30 GMT.

Japan’s economy is likely to have grown faster in the fourth quarter than initially reported, as companies ramped up investment in plant and manufacturing equipment, a latest Reuters poll showed. GDP growth for the October-December quarter is expected to be upwardly revised to an annualized 1.6 percent from a preliminary 1.0 percent, according to the median estimate of 20 economists.

Separate data from the finance ministry is expected to show Japan’s current account surplus in January narrowed to 239.0 billion yen (USD2.09 billion) from JPY1.1 trillion in the previous month due to a slowdown in exports, Reuters reported.

Trump’s plans for fair trade sound like a border tax adjustment President Trump’s address to Congress contained much of what we have come to expect: i) tax cuts for businesses and the middle class ii) $1trn worth of infrastructure spending (financed by public and private partnership) and iii) fairer trade. Last year’s near US$800bn US trade deficit is very much in focus and Trump’s remarks last night regarding unfair international tax structures point to growing acceptance of Paul Ryan’s border tax adjustment (BTA) plan. Beyond the touted benefits of encouraging onshoring and discouraging corporate tax inversions, the BTA is also ear-marked to generate US$100bn of increased tax revenue – which seems essential to pay for corporate tax cuts elsewhere. There is much literature on why a 20% border tax adjustment necessitates a 25% rally in the dollar. The magnitude of the impact will be disputed, but the direction of travel should be pretty clear and keep the dollar supported into key Trump speeches (talk of tax details being released March 13th). The dollar is also being supported by the now 78% probability of Fed March hike – after Fed insider Dudley said the case for a rate hike had become ‘a lot more compelling’. A strong ISM and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, headline PCE, pushing to 2.0% today both point to further dollar strength. DXY to 102.05/10.

Mexican Central Bank, Inflation and Outlook

According to news reports, central bank governor Agustin Carstens will stay in his current position until the end of November 2017, as opposed to leaving at the end of June. He was set to join the BIS as General Manager on 1 October 2017. At the time of writing, neither the central bank nor the office of Mexico’s President had confirmed this delayed departure. If confirmed, the change in his departure date would give more time for the President to consider submitting an initiative to Congress to change the central bank law to remove the requirement that all members of the board have to be born in Mexico. The main beneficiary of this change would be, in our view, Alejandro Werner, current Director of the Western Hemisphere at the IMF. Results from the latest Citibanamex inflation survey will be released today at about 3:00pm EST. We estimate that headline and core consumer prices rose 0.15% mom and 0.37% mom, respectively, in the first half of February versus the second half of January. If our estimates are accurate, annual headline inflation would stand at 4.5%, down from 4.7% in January, while annual core inflation would be 4.0%, unchanged compared to last month. The government will report consumer price figures for the first half of February on Thursday at 9:00am EST. We expect annual headline inflation to remain above the central bank’s inflation target (3% ± 1p.p) upper limit throughout the year. We estimate that agricultural prices fell by close to 1% in the first half of February, relative to the second half of January, accounting for most of the gap between the headline and core inflation prints. Finally, in a TV interview central bank deputy governor Alejandro Díaz de León said that the central bank’s main job is that inflation expectations remain well-anchored and that price formation in the economy also remains adequate. In his view, the central bank’s interest rate increases are creating a more orderly outlook for inflation. He said that future interest rate increases will be contingent on several items, including relative monetary conditions vis-à-vis the US Federal Reserve, upcoming inflation numbers and the output gap. These are the main factors the central bank has mentioned in its most recent monetary policy statements. On currency interventions he said that the goal has been to foster good liquidity in the market and intervene only in a few instances when liquidity dries up.

Monthly Global EM Outlook, Trump Policies and Inflation

From the current starting point, the near-term inflation outlook is generally unthreatening in most markets that have a large weight in the international benchmark indices for EM local currency debt.

Inflation has risen in some EM countries during the past half year in response to currency depreciation and increases in global oil prices; but the CPI impact of exchange rate weakness has in most cases diminished and the oil price effect is probably about to peak. Beyond the group of EM countries that now have large weights in the EM debt indices, it is notable that core inflation is on the rise in China.

 The current level of core inflation (2.2% year-on-year) is not seriously disconcerting but if it continues to creep upwards then it will eventually become a constraint on China’s monetary policy. This represents a risk for the entire EM/commodities complex, but it is more likely to be a risk for the second half of 2017 than a focal point in the next few months. More imminently, the main risk of abrupt policy rate increases in the EM universe comes from the US in the form of the possibility of a surprisingly large batch of Fed rate hikes during the remainder of the year and/or a border adjustment tax. Either of these shocks could force a swathe of EM central banks to choose between raising their policy rates substantially or having to live with undesirably steep currency depreciation.

Given the current predominantly unthreatening EM inflation trends and residual labor market capacity slack in many countries, a large share of the EM central banks – especially in Asia – look set to be able to leave their own policy interest rates unchanged if the Fed keeps raising rates at a gentle pace and if the US border adjustment tax fades away.

An important source of inflation volatility in the EM world in recent years has EM currency depreciation (in nominal trade-weighted terms) that has led to increases in prices not only for imports, but also for those domestically produced goods that compete against foreignproduced items either in the domestic market or the export market. However, this problem dissipated in most of the EM world during the course of 2016, and only a few of the large EM countries – Mexico and Turkey to be precise – are seeing this problem unfold right now

Two other large EM countries – Brazil and Russia – are in the opposite camp. Inflation has fallen sharply in both countries in the past year. This reflects in part a swing from large-scale currency depreciation in late 2015 and early 2016 to equally forceful currency appreciation during the past 12 months. Deep recession, widening output gaps, and cautious monetary policy in both countries have also helped contain inflation. The view of our Brazil-based economists is that recent currency appreciation will continue to help drive down the country’s inflation in the present year whereas the main drivers of last year’s fall in inflation were a large decline in the pace of adjustment in government controlled prices (in part reflecting currency dynamics and a big change in global oil price inflation), the depth of the recession and, related to this, weakened wage pressure in the labor market.

To be sure, the behavior of EM currencies, inflation and policy rates would be highly likely to become much messier if the Fed were to accelerate the pace of its rate hikes substantially beyond what is currently priced into the US rates curve, perhaps in response to stronger wage data or aggressive future plans for unfunded US tax cuts. There is also, in our view, a very real risk to EM investors associated with the plan of Republican members of US Congress for border adjustment taxation (BAT), or from the possible imposition by the US of other types of import taxation. As we have argued multiple times on these pages, the BAT and import tariffs are likely to be highly dollarsupportive. If Trump’s decides to support either, and if he secures congressional approval, dollar-based holders of EM local-currency-denominated assets are likely to take a hit.

It might seem inviting to think that the BAT would help curb inflation in the EM world, because it would be likely to drive down the dollar price that EM-based importers pay for goods from the US (as US exporters would be entitled to a new subsidy) while also driving down the dollar price that EM-based exporters would obtain from sales to the US (because their sales would be subject to taxation at the US border). But the inflation “benefit” would be eroded by EM currency depreciation against the dollar. EM currency depreciation would most likely be sufficient to drive the local-currency prices for EM countries’ exports and imports (in trade with the US) almost all the way back to their pre-BAT levels.

 

 US Financial and Monetary Conditions, Yellen, Inflation & Oil, China and RMB

US financial and monetary conditions continue to improve as market indicated real yields remain muted while stocks and other real assets break into higher valuation territory. The S&P 500 has exceeded the 20trn market capitalisation mark on the day when all four major US equity indices reached new historic highs. The advance seems broad-based with cyclicals like financials taking the lead. The stock market trades reflation and, with US markets leading, markets seem to be taking the view that global reflation is centered in the US.

Against this background the Fed’s Yellen will appear before the Senate Banking Committee at 3pm (Ldn) today and the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow. A prepared testimony will be the same both days and will probably be released when the Senate hearing starts but sometimes gets released earlier by the committee. Here Yellen will have to present the Fed’s view which at times has differed from her more dovish attitude. Hence, it is not surprising to see markets walking into these risk events with a relaxed attitude, seeing the Fed hiking only cautiously and not as aggressively as signaled by the median Fed dots. Should Yellen divert from the moderate projection of the interest rate path as currently priced into the market, the USD may rally. This risk is asymmetrically priced leaving us comfortable with our USD long positioning against low yielding currencies EUR and JPY.

Animal spirits are now often mentioned in press reports. The last time the US was experiencing animal spirits goes back to the 90s when James Rubin ran the US Treasury. Then it was the high tech boom driving many asset classes. The stock market started to correlate with retail sales as wealth effects kicked in. We have not yet seen this effect in the US, but with the continued asset rally the likelihood of animal spirits taking over is not insignificant. Last year, it was the shaky international background pushing the USD sharply lower as the Fed eased the markets’ rate expectations via dovish talk. Today even the global environment looks better with EMU economic and political divergence providing the exception.

Inflation and oil. This morning saw China’s PPI growth beating market estimates by a wide margin with rising commodity prices and a strong January base effect providing the main catalysts. US bond yields coming down faster than the Japanese yields may dampen USDJPY, but it does not generally weaken the USD. As long as the reason for lower oil prices is due to higher US oil output the decline of oil may even work in favour of the USD in the long term. Yesterday the US (EIA) reported its oil output increasing by 80k. Oil rigs are on a fast rise as shale companies experience better funding conditions and the ability to sell oil at higher prices.

RMB in focus. According to the WSJ, President Trump’s administration may be considering alternative strategies with regard to currency issues with China. “Under the plan, the commerce secretary would designate the practice of currency manipulation as an unfair subsidy when employed by any country, instead of singling out China, said people briefed on or involved in formulating the policy.” There are two issues coming into our minds. First, the administration hoping China may push USDCNY lower via using its reserves or tightening its own monetary conditions. This strategy comes at relative costs to China and is beneficial for the US. Should this scenario work out then China may switch some of it FX reserves into JPY or EUR even if this comes with potential future FX reserves valuation losses. Secondly, China may turn into an infrastructure investor into the US. Japan seems to already be leaning in this direction. It would help the US in creating jobs while giving China a good investment return for its foreign-held assets. In this scenario the US yield curve would stay steep and the USD strong.

Carry Trades Still Supported, JPY weakness and EURUSD

JPY and EUR funded carry themes stay on top of our recommendation list. The resignation of the Fed’s Tarullo, responsible for bank regulation, will add to speculation that the US banking sector is soon going to be in a position to increase its higher risk assets, which will be seen as market risk friendly. This morning has seen copper prices in China rallying by as much as 5.9%, inspired by disruptions in mines in Indonesia and Chile and strong demand in China. Oil has continued its rally, supported by last week’s IEA report which suggested 90% compliance with the OPEC output cuts agreed. Higher commodity prices will steepen curves within output gap closed economies such as the US adding to USD support against low yielding currencies. In this scenario, EM should stay bid across the board helped by better revenue prospects on the back of higher commodity prices.

TheJPY5_30’s curve has flattened for the 4th day in a row underlining the success of the BoJ’s yield curve management. Today’s release of strong 4Q GDP growth (1%QoQ) provided probably the best outcome for the JPY to weaken further. It was strong enough to keep inflation expectations high enough to keep JPY real yields contained. On the other hand it was weak enough to still keep the BoJ on its yield curve managing approach. The technical position of USDJPY looks bullish leaving markets taking advantage of the benign outcome of the Trump Abe meeting this weekend in Florida. Underlining both countries’ common geo Pacific interests should imply that the US has an interest in a strong and reflating Japan. For Japan to reflate it needs yield curve management leading to JPY weakness, within a globally reflating environment.

The only risk to JPY weakness may come out of Europe where Japan holds significant holdings in semi core sovereign bonds. There is a lot of talk about political risks in the run-up to the 15 March election in the Netherlands, the April/May French Presidential election and the September General vote in Germany. However, economic and credit concerns may be even more important. The hawkish speech by the ECB’s Mersch on Friday does not lead to EUR strength. Instead it revealed EMU’s structural weakness suggesting EURUSD may break the 1.0610 chart point. Should the ECB talk tough and Italy stay economically weak then EMU real rates will be too high for Italy, suggesting the BTP spread will widen out.

In recent days the EUR has become negatively correlated with peripheral spreads. Japanese investors holding semi core bonds may become increasingly concerned seeing core EMU bond curves steepening with peripheral bonds undergoing a bearish credit driven flattening. In comparison to the JPY, the EUR may be the better short. Greek debt worries have come in and out of focus for EUR investors. Greece has a EUR1.8bln payment to the ECB in April and 7bln to creditors in July. Should the IMFstick with its principles (Europe is no longer the main shareholder) then there must be a new package negotiated. Since debt relief is unlikely ahead of the German election, the downside for the EUR is significant for us.

European corporate tax in focus. The rejection of the Swiss corporate tax reform via Sunday’s referendum shows how deeply rooted populism has become, now affecting even rich countries. The CHF should say strong despite concerns of reduced corporate inflow. The main FX takeaway from this story however is its contribution to the Brexit negotiations. There have already been suggestions that the UK could cut corporate tax rates if the EU fails to provide it with an agreement on EU market access, therefore the Swiss tax complications and the uncertainty-induced potential for corporate rates to stay low there could work in the UK’s favour.  EURGBP shorts are making more sense now as a medium term trade, with a move below the 200DMA at 0.845 providing more downside momentum.

 

USD Strength trying to recover, ECB committed to low real rates, Japan bond buying and AUD outlook

Conditions for the USD rally have improved with three events becoming topical. First, ECB’s Praet and the BoE have made it clear that Europe is not aiming for early rate hikes and are comfortable with seeing real rates dropping further from here. Secondly, Japan’s money market operations have underlined its commitment to control the JGB yield curve, which we view as a step towards Japan’s commercial banking sector regaining profitability and thus creating conditions for a faster money multiplier growth. Within an environment of DM reflation, the side effect of this policy is JPY weakness working via widening rate and yield differentials. Thirdly, China tightened its monetary policy by 10bps overnight, reported slower January manufacturing activity, but fixed the RMB weaker compared to market expectations. USDCNY came off a moderate 0.2% while USDCNH rallied this morning by 0.24%.

 The next hurdle for the USD to overcome is the Fed. Wednesday’s interest rate statement left the impression it may be operating behind the curve by acknowledging that inflation ‘will’ reach 2%, but refusing to send a signal to turn March into a ‘live meeting’. Today’s release of the US labour market report is only important in respect of impacting the FOMC’s mind set. Concretely, a strong labour market report helping the Fed by sending hawkish signals will be USD supportive. However, should the Fed stay dovish then a strong US labour market report may only steepen the US curve, but do little to support the USD. Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony on 14 February will be a key risk event. In between, today the Fed’s voter Evans will speak on the economy and monetary policy.

The BoE has upped its growth forecast, has kept its inflation forecast little changed and has maintained its neutral policy bias leading to sharp GBP losses. The BoE left the impression of possibly underestimating inflation risks and by doing so it may be able to run accommodative monetary conditions for longer. While the National Institute of Economic Research sees inflation reaching 4% by the end of this year, the BoE has found additional labour market slack allowing it to project wage growth staying muted. The BoE sees inflation averaging 2.7% this year and 2.6% in 2018, little changed from its November projections. Its long-term economic projections are based on the assumption of rates rising early 2019, differing significantly from current market pricing, and suggesting rates going up by 25bp by August 2018.

ECB’s Praet as presented an equally dovish message suggesting that the recent upward trend in inflation was due to temporary factors including energy and food prices and the ECB would continue to “look through” factors contributing to the underlying trend.” With the Maastricht contract framework becoming less effective and EMU remaining fragmented in fiscal and regulatory terms (lack of fiscal and banking union) the ECB has to conduct policy according to the needs of its weakest link (see here for more). Italy seems to fall into this category. EMU’s equity markets and volatility curves have steepened recently. While some of this steepening may be related to upcoming general elections in Holland and France, the recent widening of EMU sovereign bonds spreads has added to concerns. EURUSD is a sell at current levels with a stop at 1.0840 and a target 0.9700. The risk to this trade is Italian data turning better, but given the continued weak credit creation by Italian banks we regard this risk as minor.

Some investors link bullish AUD strategy into a global reflation framework. Associating reflation with rising commodity prices may provide support to this idea. However, reflation and commodity prices are unlikely to stay linked for long should our view prove correct that part of DM is developing into a cost push inflation environment comparable to the 70s. The 70s did see precious metal strength while other raw materials stayed lacklustre. Opposite, the deflationary past 15 years were accompanied by periods of excessive raw material strength. So far, the CRB Rind has kept on rising, but with China tightening its policies while its manufacturing sector is weakening (Jan Caixin PMI eases to 51.0 from 51.9) it may not take too long from here to see commodity prices topping out.

US Bond Yields and USDJPY, US Risk Premium, BoJ Meeting Notes, BoC and EURUSD

US bond yields and USDJPY have scaled back to levels drawing a technical dividing line between a bull and a bear market interpretation. US political volatility seems on the rise in the aftermath of the recent imposition of immigration controls, possibly giving markets the impression that the rules could change quickly for anyone dealing with the US. Our global risk demand index (GRDI*)has scaled back from levels above 2 which is generally associated with markets runninghigh levels of complacency. GRDI was at 1.07 at market close yesterday. Precious metals have turned higher with Silver building a key reversal formation. Today Trump is expected to announce the new Supreme Courtnomination.

Certainly, the risk premium to hold USD denominated assets has increased as US politics have become more difficult to predict. However, we regard the glass still as half full and differentiate USDJPY driven in the near term by risk sentiment, while in the long term higher US capital demand should drive rate and yield differentials in favour of the USD. US December consumer expenditure rose by the highest rate in three months suggesting that the US economy has entered 2017 with strong momentum. The Fed statement tomorrow may reflect recent data strength. Seeing US nominal GDP expanding at a faster pace compared to the rise of US rates seen over the past year plus accelerating credit creation by US commercial banks suggests that US monetary conditions have eased. The Fed may like to reduce accommodation from here which should put the current USD downward correction to rest.

Today’s outcome from the BOJ meeting underlined their firm commitment to managing the yield curve (policy rate at – 0.10%, 10yr JGB yield target at 0%, 80tln annual bond buying). The statement underlining downside risk to inflation indicates that there is little risk of seeing the BoJ moving away from keeping 10-year JGB yield near zero. Interesting are comments from PM Abe’s economic adviser Kozo Yamamoto calling the 5-8% VAT increase of 2014 a mistake, suggesting Japan may operate a new round of fiscal stimulus to ensure the country overcomes inflation. The text book would suggest fiscal expansion supporting the currency, but this interpretation requires the central bank to turn less accommodative in response to the fiscal stimulus. However, Yamamoto has clarified that Japan can only then engage in a fiscal stimulus under conditions of debt sustainability suggesting funding costs staying south of nominal GDP expansion. When the three pillar ‘Abenomics’ kicked in in 2013 with Japan engaging in monetary easing, fiscal stimulus and structural reform, the JPY sold off hard. The JPY is driven by real yield differentials. Japan staying accommodative via its monetary policy and easing fiscally may (via rising inflation expectations) push Japan’s real yield level lower which, in turn, should support Japan’s equity market and weaken the JPY. Note, Japan inflation expectations (10y breakeven) are on the rise again and are thus ignoring recent risk volatility.

BOC’s Poloz will speak today and we think he will present a dovish message in line with yesterday’s comments from the Deputy Governor Sylvain Leduc highlighting the level of household indebtedness and elevated housing prices unlikely to withstand a persistent spike in unemployment. The fact that indebtedness is rising for the most indebted households is ‘really worrisome’ according to the BoC. The employment data for Canada are going to be important to watch for the CAD. The CAD should come under selling pressure today and this selling pressure has the potential to add momentum should oil prices extend recent selling pressure. Oil has broken lower on reports suggesting US rigs reaching their highest level since November 2015.

We remain EUR bearish with potential selling pressures coming from two sides. First, the new US administration focusing its new trade policy on areas running pronounced surpluses against the US may drag EMU into the trade debate. EMU’s crisis response was to consolidate fiscally and to seek higher employment via increasing net trade, allowing the EMU to convert its 2008 current account deficit into a 3% surplus. Secondly, EUR hedging costs have declined as shown in the chart below, which in light of current inner-EMU spread widening could lead to EUR selling. As JPY hedging costs have remained high EURJPY could turn as a catalyst for EUR weakness.

 

European Fixed Income Markets

Risk assets and EGB spreads decouple. Equity markets hit fresh highs this week, while the iTraxx Senior Financial index touched a 5-month low. In this context, safe havens underperformed, with 10yr Bund yields rising to the highest level in 12 months (i.e. 0.50%).

The risk-on mood, however, did not extend to EGB spreads, which have remained under widening pressure (new issue concessions notwithstanding). This is not just political risk premia creeping into markets such as France (where underperformance versus Germany is now also showing up in equities), or Italy (where the Court ruling has paved the way for possible snap elections in late Q2/Q3). Also Irish and Belgian spreads over Bunds have remained on a widening trajectory, suggesting that ECB tapering fears may also be in play.

That said, 10yr Bono/Bund spreads have continued to buck the widening trend (Figure 1), and accordingly 10yr SPGBs now look more than 30bp overvalued on a RV basis according to our fair value model. We suspect that at some point, either risk assets will struggle to make new highs or EGB spreads will start to re-tighten. We deem the former slightly more likely, although we do see value in EGBs which are less exposed to political risk (for example Ireland). Alternatively, we would suggest to go long Ireland versus Austria.

In money markets, meanwhile, we find the 1-month Eonia forward for mid-2018 having risen further, to 8bp above the current fixing – even more at odds with the ECB’s forward guidance that policy rates won’t go up until “well after the horizon of the net asset purchases”. EGB supply to remain above €20bn (Figure 20). On Monday, the Tesoro will launch a new 10yr BTPS (€3.5-4bn) as well re-open the BTPS 0.35 11/21 and CCTS 2/24. The new 10yr is trading 2-3bp cheap on the low-coupon curve in the grey market, and as highlighted above, has lost significant ground versus Spain, which should support demand at the auction. The CCTs 2/24 trades a tad rich relative to the low-coupon BTP curve, but at a juicy 19bp pick-up to the adjacent CCTS 7/23. Elsewhere, Germany will issue a new 5yr OBL, while markets are still awaiting a syndicated deal from Finland (10yr or 30yr). For a complete overview of next week’s supply and rating reviews please see pages 5 and 6.

Energy

• North Sea disruption: Production at the Buzzard oilfield in the North Sea has experienced a slight setback with production at the 180Mbbls/d field falling up to 30Mbbls/d. The field is the largest contributor to the Forties crude oil stream. While a minor outage in terms of volume, the market did appear to react to the news.

• US natural gas withdrawals: The EIA’s weekly natural gas report showed that net withdrawals over the week were relatively modest at 119 Bcf, compared to a five year average of 176 Bcf. Warmer than usual weather across much of the US has led to weaker heating demand.

Metals

• China gold imports: Chinese gold imports jumped higher over December 2016. Switzerland exported a total of 158 tonnes over the month to China, up from 30.6 tonnes the month before. Meanwhile Hong Kong sold a net 47 tonnes over December, up from 40.6 tonnes in the previous month. Stronger demand ahead of Chinese New Year supports these robust import numbers.

• Samarco mine restart: BHP Billiton and Vale’s Samarco iron ore mine was planned to restart this year, following the bursting of a dam at the mine in 2015. However a local mayor this week refused to approve a plan where the mine would use water from a nearby river. Without this approval the mine will not be able to complete an environmental study before getting approval to restart operations.

Agriculture

• Argentina soybean output: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimate that soybean output for the 2016/17 season will total 53.5m tonnes, down 4.5% YoY. The reduction is on the back of reduced area, while recent flooding also led to some lost acreage.

• Brazil coffee output: Brazilian coffee exporter, Comexim expects that domestic coffee production for the 2017/18 season will fall to 49.4m bags from 54.55m bags the season before. Part of the decline is due to the fact that the season will be the lower yielding year of the biennial cycle. Comexim’s estimate is higher than the 43.7-47.5m bag forecast of CONAB.

USD technicals and DXY strength, ECB and EUR

The USD has experienced a powerful rebound re-establishing post US election relationships between the performance of risk assets and US bond yields on the one hand and the USD on the other hand. Importantly, suggestions according to which US anti-trade rhetoric would increase US inflation but reduce US growth prospects have been dismissed by yesterday’s price action. A stagflation scenario would push nominal bond yields higher, the curve steeper and the USD lower, which was in line with price action witnessed earlier this week. However, stagflation would undermine shares too, but the share market rallied towards new highs, allowing us to express confidence in our bullish USD call by adding bullish positions to our strategic portfolio.

USD technicals have dramatically improved. The DXY has printed four marginally new lows earlier this week with Wednesday’s low not finding confirmation in the 9-day RSI and creating a ‘positive divergence’. More important has been the BoJ stepping into markets increasing its Rinban operation in the 5-10 year JGB sector from JPY410 to 450bln in line with our projection expressed here yesterday. This operation has steepened the JGB curve further with 40 year yields reachingnew cycle highs which should help banks and insurance companies to boost their profitability, but it does increase the chances too that the BoJ expands its operation into the long-end of the curve trying to reduce volatility. Keeping JGB volatility low must be one of the key BoJ policy objectives to allow commercial banks to shift their JGB holdings accounting for 17% of total assets from the negatively yielding part of the curve into positive yield territory without increasing the critical VAR.

Falling DM productivity rates in conjunction with demographics boosting savings relative to consumption and globalization has allowed DM real rates to decline over the past three decades. Lower real US rates were an important factor driving US financial and real sector investment abroad providing the fuel for the EM economic growth engine. This trend may terminate now with globalization slowing and the demographically related increase of savings relative to investment peaking. US productivity is the next factor to look at. Productivity has a structural and a cyclical component. Higher investment will boost cyclical productivity suggesting US capital demand and US real rates going up, both working in favour of the USD.

The EUR will not withstand these pressures either and we reiterate our view calling the EUR the ‘mini JPY’. Inner EMU sovereign bond spreads have widened with Italy, Portugal and Greece taking the lead, pouring cold water on the idea the ECB may head towards an early reduction of its monetary accommodation. Greece and its EU creditors continued to struggle on Thursday to reach agreement on a key review needed for Athens to unlock new loans and avoid a descent into renewed financial turbulence. Italy’s economy struggles with its real rates which are too high relative to its ailing investment outlook, leaving the ECB with little other choice but to create conditions under which Italian real rates can fall. Tightening its policy too early may come with too high costs putting Italy under even more stress. Hawkish comments from ECB members representing core countries (Mersch, Weidmannn, Lautenschlaeger) may be dismissed as the ECB directorate runs the show and here dovishness has prevailed. The EMU’s core may develop inflation while Italy may prevent the ECB from acting ahead of the curve, creating an ideal environment for EUR weakness.

 

USD divergence from bond yields, US savings, JPY curve

Accordingly, the current divergence of USD from US bond yields should not stay for long. It will be the steepening of the US yield curve reducing the relative attractiveness of taking advantage of the wide USD-JPY cross currency base. Otherwise, real yield differentials should be watched closely. It is the 10-year real yield differential and not the front end that matters here. The 10-year real yield differential leads USDJPY while 2-year real yield differentials and USDJPY follow a random pattern. With DM reflation gaining momentum and the BoJ keeping the JGB curve controlled, the real yield differential should soon pointhigher again, taking USDJPY with it. Moreover, the 40-year JGB has reached 1%, which may be too high for the yield curvecontrolling BoJ. Rinban operations emphasising long-end JGB purchases may be the next event to push USDJPY up.

Since the summer, the US savings ratio has declined from 6.2% to 5.5%,and with the government considering tax cuts and public sector spending programmes, US aggregate savings are set to decline. This is important should the economy enter self-sustaining growth with private investment picking up. Private investment increases capital demand which, in the context of lower aggregate US savings, must lead to a higher yield unless a higher USD and related capital inflows do not moderate this effect. We emphasise that the US has the choice between higher bond yields and a higher USD. The vacuum of US economic data this week gets filled today with a flurry of reports on jobless claims,new home sales, the trade balance, wholesale inventories, leading indicators and the services sector. Another set of better US data releases should work via higher yields into support for USD.

Global and European Interest Rates

A risk-on rally pushed 10yr UST yields above 2.50% again and dragged 10yr Bund yields above 0.46% yesterday. The duration heavy supply constituted an additional burden for Bunds, where in particular long-end ASWs felt the weight of the new 30yr ESM and the 30yr DBR tap.

EGB spreads traded mixed yesterday. Semi-core traded on the back foot with Belgium underperforming somewhat versus France. The 10yr OAT/OLO spread had widened to 17bp in the run up to the Green OAT and had started looking stretched. That said, another driver of this spread are the upcoming French elections, where payments to the wife of the Republican presidential candidate Fillon have come under scrutiny by the press. This underscores that much can still happen and a defeat of Front National’s Le Pen is not a done deal. 10yr SPGBs almost completely reversed yesterday’s supply induced widening versus Bunds. BTPs however extended its underperformance after the Italian constitutional court struck down parts of the lower house election law and stated that the new system was immediately applicable.

The court upheld the majority bonus for the party passing the 40% threshold, but declared the run-off vote (if no party manages to pass 40% in the first round) unconstitutional. Note that current polls see no party above 40%. While this could pave the way for re-elections in 2017, President Mattarella has called for a harmonization of the lower house and senate electoral laws before new elections – the latter still being based on a proportional representation. Following the UK Supreme Court ruling the government is set to introduce a Brexit bill to parliament as soon as today.

However, the main focus in the UK will be on the 4Q GDP report. Or economists forecast the report to confirm that despite the Brexit vote in June the UK grew faster than the US, Eurozone and Japan in 2016. EGB supply. Today Italy will tap the BTPei 9/32 (€0.5-1bn) and the CTZ 12/18 (€2- 2.5bn). For Monday Italy announced the issue of a new 10yr BTP 6/27 (€3.5-4bn) alongside taps of the BTP 11/21 (€2.25-2.75bn) and the CCTeu 2/24 (€1.75-2.25bn).

Global FX: USD bouncing higher, USDJPY, Yellen and closing output gap, CAD losing ground.

Yesterday USDJPY developed, with the help of Janet Yellen,a key reversal day testing a new low (1.1257) during the Asian session and closing the New York session (1.1465) above the previous day’s high (1.1428).Further gains are in store as Yellen’s remark suggests the Fed standing reading to hike rates at a faster pace than currently priced into the rate forward curve. It is the differentiation between an output-gap closed economy (The Fed’s Beige book data was positive yesterday) receiving a fiscal stimulus compared a situation of an output-gap running economy receiving a stimulus. In the latter case the size and the implementation pace of the package is of greater importance compared to the first case.

An output closing economy should see capex improving. Capital expenditure suggests higher capital demand which, within an environment of constant domestic savings, must lead either towards a higher USD driven by capital inflows or higher bond yields. Receiving a fiscal stimulus when there is an output gap suggests the fiscal stimulus may contribute to closing the output gap, but there is no guarantee that the stimulus leads to higher capex. For instance, in the case where the stimulus is inadequate size-wise or its implementation turns out to be too slow; then markets will see a bigger disappointment with the USD and bond yields falling back sharply.

Making this differentiation between an output gap closing economy and an economy offering output gaps is essential for trading within our current framework. Yesterday’s hawkish comments from Yellen and Kaplan address the fact that the US has closed its output gap suggesting rates should be moved towards turning policy neutral. This level is currently estimated at 3% suggesting that the current US monetary policy set-up is highly accommodative. Seeing real Fed funds rate falling below -1.0% as inflation has rebounded at a quicker pace than the Fed hiking rates adds weight to this view. Seeing the US equity market rallying in reaction to hawkish Fed commentary underlines the pro cyclical market set-up. The difference from last year could not be more pronounced. Fed Q4 2015hawkishness flattened yield curves, pushed inflation expectations off the cliff, undermined EM currencies and finally led to a sharp equity market decline. Yesterday saw US long end break evens rising (December CPI did beat market expectations), the yield curves staying steep and the equity market turning early losses into moderate closing gains with financials leading the pack.

The BoC leaving the door towards a further rate cut wide open fits well with our output-gap differential driven framework. Policy divergence coming on the back of inflation divergence should weaken most currencies against the USD. The CAD will be not an exception as a cut in the policy interest rate, currently at 0.50%, “remains on the table” should major downside risks to the economy emerge. Those downside risks could largely stem from the trade-related policies of the incoming U.S.administration. Designated Commerce Secretary Ross said the Trump administration will turn quickly to deal with trade relations with Mexico and Canada in the context of NAFTA.

USD safe haven buying, GBPUSD, European Unity and High Yielding Currencies

The USD may replace its reflation related bid with safe haven related demand. This scenario suggests the JPY staying correctively strong for now, gaining on many crosses, while GBP and high yielding currencies may be hit as political and currency related concerns increase. This morning, GBP will be in the centre of currency traders’ attention reacting to weekend press speculation regarding Theresa May’s government laying the foundations for a ‘clean’ Brexit and possibly abandoning what had been perceived as a ‘have your cake and eat it’ strategy, which aimed to keep access to EU’s single market. The possible new strategy leaked by the Sunday press suggests the UK regaining full control over immigration, sovereignty from European Court of Justice decision-making and readiness to exit the customs union. Chancellor Hammond suggested in an interview with German’s ‘Welt’ that the UK may head towards an alternative economic model, threatening to cut UK corporate tax rates should the exit negotiations not show desired results. Note, BoE’s Carney was warning last week that failing negotiations could impose risks to financial stability, but that these risks could be bigger for the EU than for Europe, providing another sign of the UK taking a tough stance.

Northern Ireland heading towards new elections may complicate matters, leading to speculation that Article 50 may not be triggered in late March which could increase economic uncertainty even more. Key EMU states have scheduled elections too: Netherlands, France and Germany. According to the deputy PM the Netherlands will block any EU trade deal with the UK, unless it signs up to tough tax avoidance regulations preventing it from becoming an attractive offshore haven for multinationals and the rich, giving the impression of the UK and the rest of EMU drifting apart.    

European issues seem to release a dose of deflationary pressures. Deflation tends to increase real yields of low yielding currencies, suggesting USDJPY may drift towards our 112.50 target. However, GBPUSD breaking lower will undermine any bid in EURUSD too. This applies even more when following the Carney argument of seeing a failure of UK-EMU negotiations leading to a disproportional increase in inner EMU financial stability risks. Peripheral spreads quietly working higher supports Carney’s view. Meanwhile, Greece could move quickly back into focus should the IMF opt-out require new negotiations with Greece and a new approval by the German Bundestag according to Germany’s Schaeuble. Accordingly, there could be a new programme implying additional fiscal measures and further drastic reforms in Greece. The issue becomes even more complicated when we put the views of the incoming US administration into Europe’s context.

The German tabloid Bild released an exclusive interview with US President elect who predicted other countries following the UK in leaving EMU, calling EMU as servicing the German interest and saying that the UK was smart to leave. In relation to Brexit, Trump said that he could offer the UK a quick and “fair” trade deal. On the global trade front, Trump suggested imposing 35% duty on German cars made in Mexico and exported to U.S. It seems the incoming US government has taken a very different position compared to President Obama’s approach of supporting the idea of a politically unified Europe as much as possible. There could be an early meeting between PM May and Trump trying to help the UK to establish good post EMU trade deals with the US.

High yielding currencies including the AUD could come under selling pressure should the recent round of weaker Chinese economic data releases translate into growth concerns. Car sales and the housing markets have weakened in November/December. This morning, Xiao Lisheng, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in the outlook page of the China Securities Journal that “China should stop intervening in the foreign exchange market as soon as possible, conduct a one-off devaluation of the yuan and let the yuan float freely”. The advantages of a one-off RMB depreciation include a competitive gain that would help to utilise China’s substantial output gap and prevent further capital outflows linked to current RMB overvaluation expectations.  

USD Strength to continue, GBP weakness and event risk, CZK

USD: Gentle USD strength throughout the week.  We expect USD to trade with a gentle upward bias this week. The main economic data event of the week is the December US CPI (Wed). We expect the reading to tick above 2% YoY (for the first time since mid-2014). This should benefit USD via the higher UST yield channel. President-elect Trump’s inauguration speech on Friday is likely to strike an optimistic tone, yet in terms of new news flow, it may not be enough to materially move USD.

EUR: The euro reaping the short-term benefits of the Brexit risk. It is a fairly quiet day/week on the EZ data front. Not only should EUR do well against the Brexit-battered GBP, but we also expect Brexit spill-over related EUR gains to manifest themselves against SEK. SEK has been one of the few currencies to negatively feel the Brexit spill-over last year, causing EUR/SEK to trade with persistent Brexit risk premia (as some market participants perceived Sweden as potentially the next-in-line non-EMU country vulnerable to EU exit swings). EUR/SEK to move above the 9.50 level this week.

GBP: More Brexit risk premium to be built into GBP.GBP is under heavy pressure ahead of tomorrow ‘s PM May speech on the UK government’s Brexit strategy. While the Brexit risk premium has yet again started being built into GBP, it is still nowhere near the extreme levels of October 2016 (worth c.10% in EUR/GBP at the time vs 3.3% at this point). We still see more upside to EUR/GBP and expect the cross to break above 0.90 in coming weeks/months, potentially testing the last year’s ex-sterling flash crash highs of 0.9140. This would coincide with the historically extreme EUR/GBP medium term overvaluation. While the potential Supreme Court ruling on Article 50 may provide short-term respite to GBP (if the government is forced to seek the approval of Parliament), this is unlikely to be long lasting as Parliament is likely to approve the June referendum outcome.

CZK: Will more than EUR20bn of speculative capital find a counter-party? We worry the market is getting/going to be excessively short EUR/CZK. Based on our estimates, there may be around EUR 20bn of “fresh” speculative capital currently waiting for the CNB exit from the EUR/CZK floor (and more may flow in coming weeks/moths). This may make the price action on the EUR/CZK floor exit day rather tricky – even if the EUR/CZK declines towards its far value of 25.50 over time. Hence, to err on the side of caution, we close 50% of our short EUR/CZK position as a correction in overstretched long CZK positions may be overdue.