Turkey Trade Balance and TRY

The trade balance came in at USD4.4bn in September, while the 12M rolling deficit stood at USD56.2bn, a slight increase over the previous month from the lowest level since mid-2010. The foreign trade deficit, at USD4.4bn in September, raised the 12M rolling deficit to USD56.2bn, from the lowest in six years at USD55.7 a month ago. This is likely a reversal in the long-term trend since end-2013 given the gradual decline in the supportive effects of commodity prices and ongoing risks due to geopolitical tensions. Following strong YoY growth rates recorded in August, both exports and imports contracted by 5.6% and 0.7%, respectively, translating into a 14% widening of the merchandise trade deficit in September over the same month of the previous year. As a result, coverage of imports by exports dropped to 71.5%, showing the impact of expansion in core trade deficit (excluding gold and energy), which, on a 12M rolling basis, also widened slightly.