n March, Turkey’s industrial production dropped 0.5% m/m swda, after growing 0.5% in February. On year-on-year basis, Turkey’s industrial output grew 2.9% in March as compared with the growth of 5.8% y/y in the prior month. The nation’s retail sales also fell, declining 0.6% m/m. Growth of Turkish industrial production has been stable at annualized rate of 3.3% since 2013, noted Commerzbank. Looking at this, the industrial output data does not seem negative, but definitely there are downside risks, said Commerzbank.

Turkey’s PMI remains below 50, while confidence indicators have been falling as there has been tensed situation regarding domestic political and security since the start of 2016. According to Commerzbank, the Turkish GDP is likely to grow 3.5% in 2016, as compared with its earlier projection of 4.2% growth.

“We see USD-TRY reaching 3.25 by year-end”, added Commerzbank.