USD has potential to rally further, helped by hawkish Fed commentary, rising US bond yields and, last but not least, investors adjusting their super-bearish USD book. The Fed’s Dudley said he is confident that the economic expansion has a long way to go and that a strong labour market will eventually trigger a rebound in inflation. Precious metals have turned lower, with a potential of developing a ‘double top’ formation, pushed lower by the recent rise in US real rates. Importantly, rising US real rates did not prevent risk appetite from staying supported, which we attribute to the new availability of capital.
There are two new sources of capital and liquidity which will keep risk assets supported for now. First, US banks now running solid balance sheets seem to benefit from potential deregulation imposed by the US Treasury. In order to enact its ambitious fiscal plans, the US administration needs the economy to accelerate from here urgently. Only with growth getting closer to 3% will its current budget plans have a chance of being viewed as credible by markets, in our view. The upcoming mid-term election in November 2018 adds to this urgency. Hence, the US administration has significant interest in boosting the economy with the help of better capital availability provided by the US financial sector.
USDJPY has reached levels near 111.80, trying to reenter its previous upward channel. The importance of last Friday’s BoJ statement for the valuation of JPY has not yet been fully priced in by markets. The BoJ suggesting that it stood by its JPY80trn QE target has not only dashed hopes that the central bank was in the middle of ‘stealth tapering’, it has also underlined that compared to the size of its current effective QE operation of JPY60trn, it seems ready to increase its Rinban operations by 25% should upward pressure on BoJ yields become undesirably strong. The BoJ’s intention is to keep real rates low, allowing local asset prices to stay supported and JPY to weaken.